An Exclusive Ricky Sprague "Inside Politics" column!
For immediate release:
Tomorrow is Tuesday, February 5, 2008. It is called Super Tuesday because a bunch of the states are having their presidential primaries, and the two major political parties ("Democrat," and "Republican") will elect delegates to their respective party conventions, these delegates are to be pledged to the specific candidates that receive the most votes. Now that you have the background, I would like to offer up my own predictions, based on what I'm hearing out in the field, from my sources. Only the most reliable of my sources have been consulted and listened to. Hence, the projected accuracy of this column.
Now on to the predictions, broken down by state:
ALABAMA: For the Democrats, look for Barack Obama to squeak past Hillary Clinton to win all of this state's important 68 delegates. On the Republican side, my sources are telling me to expect Mike Huckabee to pull off the upset over Mitt Romney to score the state's 87 delegates.
ALASKA: Not a lot of people even realize this is a state; as a result it's delegate count is unknown to me. It must be very cold there. Why this is not part of Canada is beyond me. On the Democratic side, look for Barack Obama to grab all the delegates, while it will be Mitt Romney for the Republicans.
ARIZONA: This state is in the southwest, and conventional wisdom has it that it's near the US border with Mexico. Immigration is big there, as a result, so they say, which plays to Barack Obama's strengths. Expect him to nab all 431 delegates, many of them Spanish speakers, which is sure to gall Republicans. Speaking of Republicans, although this is John McCain's state, and he's well known there, I still expect him to win all 782 delegates here.
ARKANSAS: Not to be confused with Kansas, this southern state has given us one of the last three presidents, and looks to do so again, as Mike Huckabee (the state's former governor) will take all 398 Republican delegates. He did such a great job for the state, taking it from number 49th to 48th in the nation for literacy, and 45th to 46th in poverty. On the Democratic side, look for Barack Obama to sweep up all 421 delegates, surprising no one, especially not me (and readers of this political column).
CALIFORNIA: This is the glittering prize, the jewel in the crown of the delegate race, as it awards more than 7 million delegates to the respective winner of each party's primary. On the heels of his endorsements from "The Governator" and a bunch of newspapers, I expect John McCain to lose out to Mitt Romney, who will pick up all of the aforementioned 7 million delegates, much to the delight of Hugh Hewitt. As for the Democrats-- Oprah Winfrey campaigned for Barack Obama in this state, need I say more?
COLORADO: My sources are telling me to expect John McCain to feel "mile high" thanks to his winning of the state's 4 delegates. That's a small number, but Colorado shouldn't feel too bad, considering it's got all that so-called "natural beauty," because of the all the mountains. Mountains that are terrifying to drive through, especially during thunderstorms. Don't ask. And don't ask why Barack Obama will pick up all 5 Democratic delegates in this delegate-poor state.
CONNECTICUT: Connecticut holds the distinction of being the only state whose name is composed of two antonyms joined by a vowel. For this reason, look for Mitt Romney to pick up all 298 Republican delegates. On the Democratic side, wild guess, Barack Obama should "connect" with 523 Democratic delegates. Oh, and Mitt Romney will "cut" John McCain; I should have said that when I was mentioning his delegate count.
DELAWARE: Everyone is "delaware" of the fact that Delaware calls itself "The First State." I think they mean chronologically, not alphabetically. Mitt Romney will take all 31 Republican delegates, while Barack Obama will score all 45 Democratic delegates.
GEORGIA: While the state's governor prays for rain, the presidential candidates (at least those who believe in a deity) will be praying for votes. Look for Barack Obama's prayers to be answered on the Democratic side, as he takes all 58 delegates. As for Republicans, Mike Huckabee looks to win big, in spite of the fact that one of his campaign promises is to close down every fast food restaurant in America. People are irrational when it comes to voting. 590 delegates for him.
IDAHO: "I'd a ho" what will happen in this state, other than the fact that Barack Obama will win every delegate for the Democrats, and Mitt Romney will win every Republican delegate. But see, the thing is, the state's delegates are actually potatoes. I'm serious about that.
ILLINOIS: Barack Obama's home state looks to award him a big number of delegates, probably about 50 or so. This is also Mitt Romney's home state, possibly, although I could be wrong about that. He will pick up all 32 Republican delegates.
KANSAS: I once got two speeding tickets during ONE SINGLE STOP-- one from a state trooper, the other from a city officer, and for that reason I refuse to recognize this state's "delegates."
MASSACHUSETTS: This is the state that Mitt Romney governored for four or eight years. He is beloved here, and look for him to pick up all the Republican delegates. As for the Democrats, Ted Kennedy's recent endorsement of Barack Obama should be enough to put the Illinois Senator over the top in this important state, which is often called "Taxachusetts" by humorous conservatives.
MINNESOTA: It's a very cold state, but it has a warm spot in its heart for John McCain, primarily because the residents don't know him personally. He will win all 592 Republican delegates. As for the Democrats, the polling is very close, but look for Barack Obama to pull ahead of the other candidate and win all 319 delegates.
MISSOURI: Based on projections from the most scientific of sources (push polling, and focus groups), I'm calling this state for Barack Obama on the Democrat side, and Mitt Romney on the Republican side. No idea how many delegates they get.
MONTANA: Let's be honest. Nothing against the great citizens of this state, but, seriously, I don't think anyone cares.
NEW JERSEY: The Garden State is our most densely populated, and a microcosm of our nation at large (it's our most representative state). The winners of this state's primaries will win their respective party's nominations. For the Republicans, Mitt Romney will surge past McCain to win all 937 delegates, while on the Democrat side it will be Barack Obama getting all 523 delegates.
NEW MEXICO: If you like spicy food, this is the state for you. And if you like your politics as spicy as your food, then this is also the state for you. And I'm not just saying that to suck up to great people of this, the greatest state in the union. I am saying that because I want someone out there to send me some of those great peppers I like so much. Look for winners in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
NEW YORK: The state made safe by Rudolph Giuliani following those dark days after 9/11. My sources tell me, however, that America's Mayor has dropped out of the race, leaving the state's 923 Republican delegates to John McCain. On the Democrat side, polling released just today shows the Senator from New York with a 56% to 34% lead on Barack Obama, who is closing the gap fast, and looks to take this state's 452 delegates.
NORTH DAKOTA: See Montana.
OKLAHOMA: Sorry, Oklahoma, but see Montana. Unless a tornado hits.
TENNESSEE: Had been trending for the former First Lady, but thanks to Al Gore's endorsement of Barack Obama, look for the Illinois senator to pick up all 498 country music delegates. On the Republican side, the family values candidate Mitt Romney should boot scoot boogie his way to all 532 delegates.
UTAH: The Mormon capital of the world will award all it's delegates, Republican and Democrat, to Mitt Romeny and his magic underwear. Total: 4,821 delegates to the successful businessman.
WEST VIRGINIA: The last state to vote, or at least the last state alphabetically. This one is a statistical dead heat, but I expect, based on the information I'm getting from my gurus, that Barack Obama, the greatest American hero since John F. Kennedy, will pick up all 652 Democratic delegates, while John McCain, the greatest American hero since Henry Kissinger, will get the state's 590 Republican delegates.
AMERICAN SAMOA: No idea.
There you have it. Bank on these predictions. A lot of thought went into them.