Saturday, February 23, 2008

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEB 22-24

Four B- and C- list actors take on the vagina of a B-list actress and the stories are told from different perspectives in the highly sexy Point Vadge, one of five new openers this weekend, along with three very subtle comedies and one more sexy film. Last year, Sony had an astonishing 64 films open at number one, and this year will be no different, starting with this eroticer. The astonishing cast of Dennis Quaid, Forest Whitaker, Sigourney Weaver, Matthew Fox, and William Hurt, who all appear in hard core sex scenes featuring full frontal, rearal, and sidal nudity, will power this film to the top of the box office this weekend. The PG-13 pic's marketing and distribution push has been more extensive and erotic than that of any new release this weekend (with tie-ins with Penthouse magazine and McDonald's), so expect it to easily top all its competitors this weekend. None of the actors are particularly bankable, but there are very few people who don't want to see Forest Whitaker naked and atop Sigourney Weaver, humping and bumping in that sweet, sweet way. Look for this film to "earn" $689M.

Jack Black and Mos Def portray two mentally challenged men who recreate classic films for the residents of a home for the mentally challenged in the new film Stupid Premise. The PG-13 film from New Line comes from acclaimed French director Michel Gondry who after Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and The Science of Sleep decided to make a really, really dumb movie. A marketplace full of new comedies will split that crowd so Stupid will have to rely on fans of the director and stars to come out. Dumper and Point Vadge will also cut into this film's target aud of mentally challenged people. Breaking into roughly 800 theaters, this film could bow to about $247M.

Larry the Cable Guy (yes, that is his real name) brings more of his brand of "humor" in the Lionsgate comedy Witless Protection opening on Friday. The comedian plays a mentally challenged comedian that kidnaps a woman in FBI custody. He wants her to be his bride, so he ties her up and puts her in the trunk. This is his idea of "courtship." Then he takes her out of the trunk and "hefts" her. He's so strong, he can lift her over 30 times, even though she's played by Jenny McCarthy, who's really let herself go lately. Rated PG-13, this lovable charmer has the goal of establishing the funnyman as a box office draw. But let's look at his last two films' grosses: Larry the Cable Guy: Mentally Challenged Bureaucrat debuted to $84M while last year's Delta Dimwits achieved only an anemic $104M bow. Opening in only about 24,306 locations, Witless Protection might collect about $498M this weekend.

MGM unwisely releases the "comedy" Charlie Bartlett starring Robert Downey Jr., and other people you don't know. The film has been delayed so many times that it was originally filmed while Downey was in rehab. The first time. The R-rated film tells the story of a kid named Charlie Bartlett, who does a lot of things that I'm sure seemed hilarious in theory. For one thing, he moves to a new school. And that's just part of the fun! Stupid teens make up the main target audience, but they will be too stupid to sneak into theaters, so the restrictive rating will keep many of them out. The marketing push has not been strong, and mostly relies on convincing people that this film is actually Iron Man, the Robert Downey Jr. starrer that people actually want to see. Grosses should be kept low, as this film competes with Juno, which will win all the Academy Awards this year. Entering about 1,000 theaters, it will debut to around $84M.

The very spry bassist for the rock group Kiss, Gene Simmons, releases his first sex tape, The Gene Simmons Sex Tape, this week to an anxious, nervous public. The X-rated sex comedy tells the story of a spry rock and roll bassist who has sex with a woman he would never, ever be able to have sex with if not for the fact that he's a rock and roll bassist. Aging boomers who grew up on Kiss' music (back when they still wore the Kabuki makeup) are the core audience, with a secondary audience comprised of the morbid. The gold standard for sex tapes has been Pamela Anderson and Tommy Lee, which has grossed an amazing $7B since its release. The lowest-grossing sex tape has been the one which starred William Frawley and Larry Fine (allegedly; the footage was grainy). Marketing hasn't been strong, and with Larry the Cable Guy's film competing for the same audience, look for this film to earn about $6 million this weekend.

Fox's sci-fi actioner Dumper should take another big dump this weekend. Word-of-mouth is shitty and Point Vadge will "snatch" away much of the orifice crowd. Look for a 50% drop to about $952M which would give the Annakin Skywalker flick $963M in eleven days.

Last weekend, The Spiderprick Chronicles got off to a yeomanlike beginning erecting itself as the only throbbing offering for families and with no kidpics opening, a smaller decline is assured. Second-weekend drops for Disney's own Presidents' Day weekend films from the past two years were 37% for Bridge to Tertiary Syphilis and 21% for 2006's uplifting charmer Dogs Dying in the Arctic. Spiderprick should insert itself into another $130M for the weekend, bringing its cume to $734M.

After dancing its way to an impressive B.O. ("box office") total last weekend, BFF 4Ever in Da 2 Hard Streetz will get leprosy. Or something. Sorry, this is a film about dancing, and I wanted to imply that the film would not be able to "dance" through the box office anymore. You can't dance with leprosy, can you? Look for a 45% drop for $472M, pushing the cume to $547M.

Warner Bros. should consider itself lucky that its "comedy" "adventure" Foolishit will drop by 68%, for a weekend take of $321M.

LAST YEAR: Spending its second weekend on top, Sony's Crap Motorcycle starring former actor Nicolas Cage sucked hard but still sucked in $254M to top the box office over Oscar weekend. Jim Carrey continued his career slide with The Dumber 23, in which he portrayed his Dumb and Dumber character in a horror film. It debuted in second with a pathetic $146M bow, eventually grossing $347M . Disney's Bridge to Tertiary Syphilis slipped one spot to third with $142M in its sophomoric frame. Fox's comedy Reno 911!: Pay to See the Same Shit You See on TV debuted in fourth with $245M representing half of its eventual $342M final tally. Fellow comedy Black Comedian in a Female Fatsuit rounded out the top five with $163M in its third session. Opening much lower were the Billy Bob Thornton drama Mentally Challenged Astronaut, in which the Academy Award winner portrayed a mentally challenged man sent to outer space as part of a NASA promotion, with $45M and the white slavery drama Amazing Strange with $41M from a more limited release. Totals reached $11M for Warner Bros. and $21.3M for Goldwyn/Roadside Attractions.

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