Friday, February 29, 2008

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEB 29-MAR 2

Will Ferrell “travels” to the box office this weekend with his latest sports “comedy,” Semi-Humorous. This is another one of those “comedies” that the “funnyman” makes that sound good on paper, but are then torture to sit through, following in the footsteps of 2007's figure skating pic Ice Crapades and 2006's racing flick NASCAR Hicks. In this latest, Ferrell plays a slightly mentally challenged drug addicted date raping pro basketball player in the 1970s. Everything is automatically funnier when it’s set in the 1970s. Seriously, have you seen the way they used to wear their hair? Crazy, man.

Almost exactly a year ago, Ice Crapades opened with $762M on its way to a $15.43B final gross. In August of 2006, NASCAR Hicks opened with $689M on its way to $14B. Unlike the previous two films, which were rated PG-13, Semi-Humorous has, like The Passion of the Christ, earned a coveted R rating. Moreover, doctors are worried about an outbreak of “Ferrell Fatigue,” a tragic diagnosis in which the patient is driven to despondent desperation from watching a man play the same idiot over and over again. The only treatment is induced coma. The good news is that the treatment is over 70% effective, and Ferrell’s fans will risk it all to catch him in action, especially if he’s wearing those short shorts like they used to wear in the 1970s. Geez, that was a funny decade. Opening on over 53,250 screens, Semi-Humorous could gross $963M this weekend.

The second big release this weekend is The Other Boring Girl, starring Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson as two attractive sisters who speak with funny accents and do a lot of boring stuff. They sleep with the king of England, at the same time, although it’s all done off-camera. Then, a bowling alley is torn down. The sisters exact their revenge by spiking the king’s onion rings. It’s kind of a weird movie, actually. Both of these young women are attractive, I’ll say that for them, but neither one is considered a big box office draw. Johansson's biggest opening weekend (for a live action film) was 1998's The Whore Whisperer (made when she was still doing porn), which opened to only $349M. Portman of course starred in three episodes of the Crap Wars saga, but if you exclude those films, and I really wish you would, her highest opening weekend was $758M for V for Crummy Movie back in March of 2006. That sounds reasonably impressive until you realize her next highest opening weekend for a film in which she had a leading role was last winter with Mr. Deformium's Emporium which opened with a paltry $214M. Look for The Other Boring Girl to "yawn" its way to around $824M.

The final new release this weekend is the long awaited Menorrhagia, starring Christina Ricci, Reese Witherspoon and James McAvoy, in the story of a woman who is cursed by heavier-than-usual menstrual bleeding. If she finds a prince to kiss her “lips,” she will find true love. The film’s menstruation theme should help, along with the fact that Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon's name is attached. Opening on around 4,987 screens, look for Menorrhagia to "flow" to around $721M this weekend.

Last weekend's champ Point Vadge will likely lose business to the Ferrell juggernaut, but should still have a reasonable hold this weekend. Look for the examination of Sigourney Weaver's vagina to fall around 40% to around $692M.

LAST YEAR: Disney released the second motorcycle themed crapfest of the year, Fat Pigs, which grossed $789M . The critically acclaimed Zodicrap debuted in second place with $598M. Two-time champ Nicolas Cage’s Crap Motorcycle grossed $216M, while a second Disney film, Bridge to Tertiary Syphilis made $414M. Jim Carrey's crossover into horror, The Dumber 23, crashed 56% and collected a measly $245M in its second weekend.

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